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On the 27th November 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their latest long-term international migration release for the year-ending June 2025, showing that net-migration has fallen to 204,000, the lowest level since 2021.

A week prior, on the 18th November 2025, the ONS released revised immigration, emigration and net-migration figures covering the year-end June 2021 to year-end December 2024, using newer and updated methodologies. In the same release, net-migration for the year-ending December 2024 was revised down from 431,000 to 345,000.

More information on the newer methodologies employed by the ONS can be read in the following release: Improving long-term international migration statistics, updating our methods and estimates: November 2025.

One of the most significant and highly publicised changes from this release was the upwards revision of British nationals who have emigrated from the United Kingdom since 2021, with the year-end December 2024 figure being revised upwards from 77,000 to 257,000, due to the newer methodologies covered in the above release.

You can see the disparity below, with the previous May 2025 estimates, against the newer November 2025 estimates, with the difference highlighted in red.

Several outlets have written about the higher estimates of British nationals leaving the country.

• The Spectator: “Young people are fleeing Britain”

• The Standard: “Migration figures show 693,000 people left Britain last year – were they our brightest and our best?“

• The Telegraph: “Exodus as young workers flee high-tax Britain”

• Reuters: “Net immigration to Britain revised down as more Britons emigrate”

Though it is worth noting The Times has published an article stating that many of these British nationals came from Europe, largely from Poland and Romania, who at some point have previously acquired British citizenship and are returning home — “Exodus of UK citizens driven by eastern Europeans returning home“

Hopefully the ONS can provide immigration and emigration estimates by country of birth at some point in the future, this would help clarify the situation and give us a better picture of who is entering and leaving the country, barring the implementation of a proper entry and exit system.

Either way, this has led to increased scepticism and debate on whether net-migration is a meaningful indicator. Hypothetically, if you were to have 250,000 British people leave the country, while 250,000 non-British people were to enter the country, the net-migration figure would be zero, but the country would still undergo cultural and social change, though to a slower degree than having net-migration at some of the peaks in recent years.

Before proceeding further, let’s first understand some basics. The ONS uses the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term international migrant as some who moves to a country for 12 months (a year) or more. This will include those on study and work visas, but won’t include those who visit the country for short business trips or go on holiday.

The exact wording in the latest ONS release is as follows:

“Estimates are based on the UN definition of an international migrant. That is, a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.“

It’s also important to understand the difference between immigration, emigration and net-migration.

• Immigration refers to those who are entering the country.

• Emigration refers to those who are leaving the country.

• Net-migration is the difference between those entering and leaving the country.

For example, if, over a given period, 750,000 people were to enter the UK (immigrate) and 500,000 people left the UK (emigrate), then your net figure (net-migration) would be 250,000.

If we look at the year-ending June 2025 figure, 898,000 people immigrated to the UK, with 693,000 people emigrating from the UK, leaving a net-migration figure of 204,000.

If you are wondering how does 898,000 - 693,000 = 205,000, not 204,000, this is because the ONS rounds.

“Net migration is calculated by subtracting emigration estimates from immigration estimates. We do this with unrounded estimates so the rounded numbers may not always match this calculation exactly.“

With this out the way, it’s possible to map immigration, emigration and net-migration of different groups, which can broadly be fit into the following categories.

• All nationalities

• British nationals

• European Union (EU) nationals

• Non-EU nationals

This can be mapped by the following two ONS releases.

The Long-term international migration 2.00, citizenship, UK release allows us some insight into the immigration, emigration and net-migration of these groups and covers 1964 to 2011 for all nationalities and British nationals and 1975 to 2011 for EU and non-EU nationalities.

The Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025 release allows us some insight into the immigration, emigration and net-migration of these same groups and covers year-ending June 2012 to year-ending June 2025.

From 2012, immigration releases cover a year-end on a quarterly basis (March, June, September and December) and are released twice-yearly by the ONS, usually one in Spring that covers September and December of the previous year, then one in the Autumn that covers March and June of that year.

Most media outlets and Government departments only reference the year-end June and year-end December figures, though year-end March and year-end September figures can also be referenced by some outlets, which can lead to confusion if not understood or made clear.

Please do note, these datasets span 50-61 years, the ONS has continually updated and refined their methodology, including backdated revisions (as we recently saw in November 2025) and these are only estimates. However absent any other data or going back in time and having a proper entry and exit system where we sign people in and out the country, this is the best we’ve got.

There is Bank of England data on immigration, emigration and net-migration going back to 1853-1855, however this offers no breakdown of the nationalities entering or leaving, so I haven’t included it.

All nationalities (1964 to June 2025)

The following three charts cover immigration, emigration and net-migration of all nationalities from 1964 to June 2025. These will be the figures that are most widely used by the Government, Home Office, ONS, media, journalists and other outlets when discussing migration figures.

British nationals (1964 to June 2025)

The following three charts cover immigration, emigration and net-migration of British nationals from 1964 to June 2025. Please see the definition section of both documents if you want to understand more about what constitutes a British national, as it has changed over the decades.

Net-migration of British nationals has been negative for every year except 1985, where it’s estimated net-migration was 1,000 for this cohort.

The average net-migration of British nationals over the coverage period is -78,000 a year.

EU nationals (1975 to June 2025)

The following three charts cover immigration, emigration and net-migration of EU nationals from 1975 to June 2025. Please see the definitions of both documents if you want to know more about what constitutes an EU national, as membership of the EU has changed over time and in recent releases, people from countries like Norway are counted as EU nationals. While a country like Norway is not an EU member state, they are a part of the EU Single Market and subject to Freedom of Movement (FoM), so have the same border controls as other EU countries.

Net-migration of EU nationals plummeted sharply after the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016, with fewer arrivals and more people leaving the country.

Net-migration of EU nationals has been negative since mid-2022 and this is a trend we are likely to see continue for sometime.

Non-EU nationals (1975 to June 2025)

The following three charts cover immigration, emigration and net-migration of non-EU nationals from 1975 to June 2025. Please see the definition section of both documents if you want to understand more about what constitutes a non-EU national.

Immigration of non-EU nationals increased sharply after Brexit, peaking at 1,193,000 in the year-ending September 2023. In the latest year-end June 2025 release, this has dropped to 670,000, though still remains well above pre-Brexit levels.

Emigration of non-EU nationals is at a record high and this trend is likely to continue in the years ahead as more work and study visas issued in previous years expire and these non-EU nationals return home.

The Government’s recently announced intention to increase the time it takes to obtain Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) and make it harder to settle in the UK is also likely to increase emigration in the years ahead.

While the net-migration charts for British nationals shows net outflows in all but a single year and the net-migration chart for EU nationals shows a net outflow since mid-2022, it’s worth noting there hasn’t been a single year with a net outflow of non EU nationals. Since 1975, the UK has consistently had a yearly net increase of non-EU nationals.

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The ONS estimates the following population sizes for 2024:

• United Kingdom: 69,281,400 (69.28m)

• England: 58,620,100 (58.62m)

• Wales: 3,186,600 (3.19m)

• Scotland: 5,546,900 (5.55m)

• Northern Ireland: 1,927,900 (1.93m)

These official estimates go so far back as 1971, even though estimates exist prior to this date, with the first census being conducted in England, Scotland & Wales in 1801 and the first census for Northern Ireland being conducted in 1926.

The Bank of England has a dataset titled “A millennium of macroeconomic data”, a massive Microsoft Excel document, at 28MB in size. This document encompasses an incredible amount of data on wages, exchange rates, debt, populations, agriculture, immigration, emigration, inflation & more.

With this data, which is compiled from a plethora of different sources, all of which are cited on the ‘Front page’ table, we can plot the population of England from 1086, Wales & Scotland from 1680, Northern Ireland from 1687 and the United Kingdom from 1922.

The population of the United Kingdom has increased from 44.39 million in 1922 to 69.28 million in 2024. Population growth levelled off after the early 1970s, when the birth rate in England & Wales fell below replacement and started accelerating again after the late 1990s, due to increased international immigration.

It’s expected the population of the United Kingdom will exceed 70 million sometime in 2026.

The population for England goes back much further, all the way back to 1086, nearly 1,000 years ago.

The population of England is estimated at 1.71 million in 1086, increasing to 58.62 million in 2024.

Note the impact of the Black Death between 1346 and 1353. Across Europe, it’s estimated this pandemic killed between 25 to 50 million people, potentially wiping out as much as 50% of Europe’s population.

The population of Wales is estimated at just shy of 350,000 in 1680 and is currently 3.19 million.

Wales suffered a severe economic difficulties in the mid 1920s. The economy of Wales was largely built on exporting coal and steel, which were hit by increased production from South America, poor exchange rates and Germany paying reparations in coal, reducing demand for coal from Wales. It’s estimated around 390,000 emigrated from Wales between 1925 and 1939.

The population of Scotland was estimated at 1.1 million in 1680 and is currently at 5.55 million. Scotland has seen relatively mild population growth in recent decades.

The birth rate in Scotland is the lowest of any country in the United Kingdom. The uptick in recent years is the result of internal migration and international migration, though immigration into Scotland remains much below the levels seen in England.

One explanation for increased internal migration could be the increasing number of retirees choosing to reside in Scotland, according to a post on LinkedIn from 2022, since 2018, nearly 11,000 additional retirees have resided in Scotland.

The population of Northern Ireland was estimated at 383,000 in 1687 and is currently at 1.93 million.

Northern Ireland has the highest birth rate of any country in the United Kingdom and little international migration compared to England, Wales and Scotland.

The population of Northern Ireland declined massively after 1840s due to the Great Famine, or as it’s sometimes also called, the Potato Famine or Great Hunger.

Note: from 1801 to 1922, Ireland was part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Chart below is for Northern Ireland only.

This famine resulted in estimated 1 million deaths in Ireland, with many more emigrating to Britain or America.

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It’s worth noting anyone with British or Irish citizenship, or anyone with right to abode, is not counted as a foreign national in these statistics, even if they may have been born abroad or hold citizenship in multiple countries.

The following charts are made using data obtained from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), specifically the Universal Credit immigration status and nationality statistics to July 2025 data table.

Below are links to the Datawrapper charts. For more information on sharing these charts, please see the about page for the Substack.

Asylum Seekers claiming Universal Credit

First up we have asylum seekers, this one is rather simple, anyone with Humanitarian or Refugee status is included in the chart below.

The number of Universal Credit claimants with either Humanitarian or Refugee status has increased massively in recent years. In April 2022, there were 67,444 people claiming Universal Credit with either status.

Fast forward to July 2025 and this has increased to 174,299, an increase of 158%.

It can be without doubt that this figure will continue to increase. 2025 is set to be the worst year on record for channel crossings and the majority of illegal migrants who arrive will have their asylum claims approved, if not at initial decision, after appeal.

Foreign nationals claiming Universal Credit

Next we have the total number of foreign nationals claiming Universal Credit. For this chart, I count anyone as a foreign national if they are categorised under any of the following:

• EU Settlement Scheme

• Humanitarian

• Refugee

• Indefinite Leave to Remain

• Limited Leave to Remain

I do not include ‘Other’ or ‘No immigration status recorded on digital systems’ for the following chart.

Here’s an except from the document showing the categories.

In April 2022, there were 876,986 foreign nationals claiming Universal Credit, by July 2025, this had increased to 1,233,649, an increase of 41%.

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